Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the political, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in universities but very few politicians or activists want to engage with the basics. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two essays that seek neutrality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has got important lessons to learn from the opposing positions."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster must join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
