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Typically, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year award adheres to a straightforward script. It often serves as a type of mea culpa. Sorry we misjudged your team in our preseason projections.

In theory, it's a direct path: the coach who orchestrated the biggest turnaround is handed the prize. However, it fuels an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly rewarding superior coaching or simply the most shocking shock.

Yet the current field is profoundly different. The pool of contenders is exceptionally strong. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning division champions declining and recent strugglers improving collectively. Under an ordinary season, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. Yet in such a turbulent and fun season, he's facing several other outstanding coaches.

Here is how the ideal ballot ought to be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters love quarterbacks. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you solve a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal system, the QB has been given the opportunity to showcase his rare talent. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's sustained excellence. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, far less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the gameplan instead of improvising. It is an offense designed entirely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady helping of play-action and a innovative aerial game that frees wide receiver targets all over the field. Williams has taken advantage. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been able to create magic from nothing.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a defined offensive philosophy. Almost every decision – overhauling the offensive line, highlighting the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a timing-based passer – has paid off. This is uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer yet for a coach who entered the organization with the level of pressure Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the top candidate on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no guarantees. Somehow, he has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive genius but the type of leader that can inject new life into an franchise.

During a ordinary year, he would be the overwhelming favorite. But the current isn't a normal year!

Where his candidacy runs slightly into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense currently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are living on takeaways, and takeaways are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can emphasise creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. With a few breaks of the ball, the team would be two victories behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is in place for long-term winning. However he comes up short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a similar spot to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has engineered a swift turnaround. During the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now ranks number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, Coen has nailed the off-field stuff, which was not a guarantee following his initial press conference appearances and some of his preseason moves.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the ideal coaching mix of new ideas and experience, he trusted first-timers. From the leader himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That kind of approach is exciting on paper, but frequently collapses in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a their job on the fly. Yet he has managed to bring everyone and all elements into sync.

Following an early strong beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would go off the rails. A midseason setback had the team stumbling again. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. Coen did not. Rather, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped chasing explosive plays and started hunting consistent ones. The coach refocused the offense around key players and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his mobility more often.

The results are obvious. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. He gets the slightest deduction in the rankings because he took over a talented roster, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year argument has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a new signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative play-caller might have derailed the campaign in October. Rather, it made it. By the mid point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has fallen away since that time, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the season, putting him only one place ahead of other QBs.

Still