War-torn Burma Votes in Broadly Condemned Political Theater.

Election materials in Myanmar
The country's junta is conducting a phased election over the next month.

Myanmar is going to the polls in a vote widely dismissed as a sham, with key opposition groups dissolved, many of their leaders imprisoned and a significant portion of the country unable to participate because of an continuing civil war.

A Phased Ballot Amid Conflict

The military government is holding a staggered election nearly five years after it took control in a takeover, which ignited widespread opposition and escalated into a devastating conflict.

Analysts note the military regime, with China's support, is attempting to validate and entrench its power as it seeks a way out of the costly deadlock.

"There are no conditions for the exercise of the rights of free speech, assembly or peaceful assembly," UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk stated.

More than 200 people have been prosecuted for disrupting or opposing the election under a recently enacted legislation which imposes harsh penalties, including the death penalty.

Director Mike Tee, performer Kyaw Win Htut and comedian Ohn Daing were among the well-known individuals found guilty under the law, which was passed in July. They were each given a seven-year jail term after speaking out against a promotional video promoting the elections.

Immense Challenges and Pressure

Civilians are "facing pressure from all sides," Mr Türk said in a comment, pointing out that armed rebel groups have made warnings urging people to shun the polls.

The military has been fighting on multiple battlefields, against both pro-democracy fighters who reject the coup, as well as ethnic armed organisations which have their own forces. It ceded territory of large parts of the country in a string of defeats, but regained territory this year after relentless airstrikes made possible through support from China and Russia.

All of this and the fact that large parts of the country are still under opposition control presents a massive operational hurdle for holding an election.

A Restricted Poll

The ballot is set to take place in three phases over the next month in 274 of the country's three hundred and thirty townships, with the remainder deemed not secure enough. Results are expected by late January.

There is not expected to be any voting in as much as one half of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, some districts will hold elections, making it difficult to forecast a likely turnout.

A handful of parties, including the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party, are fielding candidates nationwide, while dozens more parties and non-aligned contenders will contest only at the state or regional levels.

Some 40 parties, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which achieved decisive wins in 2015 and 2020, have been banned. Suu Kyi and a number of the party's key leaders have been jailed under charges widely condemned as fabricated, while the rest are in exile.

Criticism and Rejection

"Through dividing the vote into phases, the authorities can adjust tactics if the outcomes in the initial round do not go their way," noted Htin Kyaw Aye, a spokesman of the watchdog group Spring Sprouts.

Nations in the West, including the United Kingdom and the EU legislature, have rejected the vote as a sham, while neighbouring group Asean has called for political dialogue to precede any election.

The Burmese junta has dismissed criticism of the polls, insisting that it aims to "return [the country] to a multi-party democratic system".

"This vote is being held for Myanmar. It is being held for the citizens of this country. It is not being held for the international community," a junta spokesman stated at a briefing last week.

Military leader Min Aung Hlaing cautioned earlier this week that those who refuse to vote are turning their back on "the path to democracy".

Rachel Welch
Rachel Welch

Elena Vance is a historian specializing in European royalty, with over a decade of research and writing on monarchies and their cultural impact.